Market Intel • Wednesday, October 28, 2026 • Morning Eastern edition
By Abdel Khawatmi | PRMG Got Mortgages

Data as of 8:00 a.m. ET, October 28, 2026. All figures are dated to their source releases.

Key Takeaway

Yesterday's Census and FHFA releases measure different homes over different months. A lower national median price for newly built homes sold in September does not mean existing homes lost value, and it is not a trend for New Jersey. What it can signal is negotiating room with some builders, which buyers should test with complete, side-by-side loan numbers.

The 60-Second Briefing

  • New-home sales (September): The U.S. Census Bureau and HUD reported on October 27 that new single-family homes sold at a seasonally adjusted annual pace of 676,000, down 0.6% from a revised 680,000 in August and 5.3% below September 2025. The monthly change carries a ±13.8 percentage-point margin, so it is not statistically significant.
  • New-home median price: $400,400 in September, 3.9% below $416,800 a year earlier but 3.9% above the revised August median of $385,400.
  • New-home inventory: 476,000 new homes for sale at the end of September, or about 8.4 months of supply nationally.
  • Home values (August): FHFA's purchase-only House Price Index, released October 27, rose 0.3% in August (seasonally adjusted) and 2.4% from August 2025. July was revised to +0.2%.
  • Mortgage rates: Mortgage News Daily's 30-year fixed index closed October 27 at 7.33%, unchanged from October 26. Freddie Mac's weekly survey was 7.32% on October 22, down from 7.40% on October 15. HousingWire's Mortgage Rates Center showed 7.38% for a 30-year conforming loan at midday October 27, 14 basis points below a week earlier. Each is an average using a different method and timing, not a quote.
  • The Fed: The Federal Reserve's official calendar lists the October 27–28 FOMC meeting, with the statement scheduled for 2:00 p.m. ET today, after this edition. We make no prediction about the decision.

Inflation is the backdrop: the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported on October 14 that September consumer prices rose 3.7% over the year, with core prices up 2.6%. The Mortgage Bankers Association most recently verified weekly survey (released October 21) showed applications down 5.3% for the week ended October 16; today's report had not been independently verified at publication, so we omit it.

Why "Prices Fell" and "Values Rose" Can Both Be True

The two headlines from October 27 looked contradictory. They are not. They answer different questions.

The Census median: the middle of a changing basket

The new-home median is the price at which half of the newly built homes sold in September went for more and half for less. Next month, the basket is completely different homes. If builders sold more townhomes, smaller floor plans or homes in lower-cost regions, the median falls even if no individual home got cheaper. If the mix shifts toward larger homes or pricier regions, the median rises. That is why the median dropped 3.9% from a year ago yet rose 3.9% from August: the sales mix moved.

Census figures are also national and survey-based, and they are regularly revised. A single month, especially a change inside the margin of error, is not a trend.

The FHFA index: the same homes, sold again

FHFA's purchase-only index compares sale prices for the same single-family properties over time, using loans backed by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. Because each comparison holds the property constant, it is a better gauge of how values are changing. It reports August, not September, and it excludes many cash and jumbo transactions.

The practical point: If a neighbor tells you "home prices are falling," ask which number they mean. For a New Jersey homeowner, neither national figure substitutes for a property-specific comparative market analysis or appraisal.

What 8.4 Months of Supply Means at the Negotiating Table

Months of supply estimates how long it would take to sell the new homes on the market at the current sales pace. A higher number means builders nationally have more finished and under-construction homes to move. That can make some builders more willing to offer closing-cost help, rate buydowns, upgrades or price adjustments, particularly on completed homes that carry costs every month they sit unsold.

What it does not tell you: how many homes are for sale in Toms River, Freehold or Bloomfield, or how a specific builder is managing its pipeline. New Jersey's new construction is limited and varies by town and project. Treat the national figure as a reason to ask, not as proof of leverage.

Price Cut, Seller Credit, Points or Buydown? How to Compare

A $10,000 concession can be used in very different ways, and they do not produce the same result. Here is an illustrative way to think about it (not a quote):

  • Price reduction: Lowers the loan amount, down payment requirement and, over time, possibly property taxes tied to assessed value. The payment savings are modest but permanent, and a lower price can reduce appraisal risk.
  • Seller credit toward closing costs: Preserves your cash at closing. Useful if cash is tight, but the price, and therefore the loan amount, stays higher.
  • Permanent discount points: Buy down the interest rate for the life of the loan. Ask for the break-even point: how many months of lower payments it takes to recover the cost. If you may sell or refinance soon, points may not pay off. A future refinance is never guaranteed.
  • Temporary buydown (such as a 2-1): Lowers the payment for the first year or two, then it rises to the full note rate. Qualify and budget for the full payment, not the starter payment.

Net price and appraisal: If a builder raises the price to fund a larger credit, the home still has to appraise. Lenders evaluate the contract price and concessions, and an appraisal below the contract price can require more cash or a renegotiation. Also read the contract for resale or occupancy restrictions, assignment limits and incentive claw-backs.

Builder-affiliated lender incentives: compare full Loan Estimates

Many builders tie incentives to their affiliated lender. That can be a good deal, but an advertised rate is not the whole story. Request official Loan Estimates from at least two lenders on the same day and the same loan terms, then compare:

  • Interest rate and APR
  • Discount points and lender fees (Section A)
  • Title, settlement and other closing costs
  • Rate-lock length and extension costs, important for homes still under construction
  • Monthly payment after any temporary buydown ends
  • Underwriting conditions and the total cash needed to close

Each loan program sets limits on interested-party contributions, often tied to the down payment and loan type. Not every buyer qualifies for every credit, and eligibility depends on underwriting. Keep appraisal and inspection contingencies; a new home still benefits from an independent inspection before drywall and again before closing.

New Jersey Context: Town-by-Town Considerations

These are general, illustrative distinctions, not local price or inventory statistics.

Ocean County (Toms River, Brick): Near the bay and barrier islands, flood zone status, flood insurance and wind coverage can move the monthly payment as much as a rate change. Get insurance quotes and elevation information early, before you choose between a price cut and a buydown.

Monmouth County (Freehold, Middletown): Coastal and near-water sections of Middletown carry different insurance profiles than inland Freehold-area neighborhoods. Property taxes vary widely by municipality, so compare full housing payments, not just prices.

Essex County (Newark, Bloomfield): Condos and two-to-four-unit properties are common. Condo projects can have their own approval and HOA review requirements, and multifamily purchases involve rental income rules. Check assessed values and any recent or planned revaluation, which can change the tax bill.

Union County (Elizabeth, Union Township): Buyers often weigh rental income from a multi-unit home. Lenders use specific rules to count that income, so do not assume a projected rent will qualify. Confirm property taxes and certificate-of-occupancy requirements with the town.

Abdel's Angle: Negotiate the Payment, Not the Headline

A national median moving 3.9% does not change what you should do with your own purchase. What matters is the price you can negotiate, the concession you can actually use under your loan program, and the payment you can comfortably carry once every temporary discount ends. Headlines create noise; your numbers create decisions.

Action Steps

Buyers: Ask the builder or seller what incentives exist in writing, then have two lenders price the same scenario. Compare a price reduction against a rate buydown using the full payment, including taxes and insurance.

Homeowners: Do not read the new-home median as a change in your home value. If you are thinking of selling, ask for a comparative market analysis built from recent nearby sales.

Agents: Help clients separate national data from local reality. Bring the lender into concession conversations early so credits fit the loan program and appraisal.

Everyone: The Fed statement arrives at 2:00 p.m. ET. Rates can move either way afterward, so decide in advance whether a lock or a float fits your timeline.

Frequently Asked Questions

Did New Jersey home prices fall because the national new-home median dropped?

No. The Census median of new homes sold in September covers only newly built homes sold nationally that month, and the mix of homes changes from month to month. It does not measure how much any existing New Jersey home is worth, and it is not a New Jersey trend.

Why did the new-home median fall year over year while FHFA showed home values rising?

They measure different things over different periods. Census reports the middle price of different new homes sold in September 2026; FHFA's August index tracks price changes on the same properties that sold more than once. A shift toward smaller or lower-cost new homes can pull a median down even when repeat-sale prices are rising.

What does 8.4 months of new-home supply mean for me?

It is a national figure for newly built homes: at September's sales pace, it would take about 8.4 months to sell the new homes available. It can signal that some builders are motivated to offer incentives, but it is not an estimate of supply in Ocean, Monmouth, Essex or Union County.

Is a builder's lower advertised rate always the better deal?

Not necessarily. Compare full Loan Estimates side by side, including APR, points, lender and title charges, rate-lock period and the payment after any temporary buydown ends. An incentive tied to a builder-affiliated lender may still be worth it, but only the complete numbers show that.

Should I ask for a price reduction or a seller credit?

It depends on your goals, cash and loan program. A lower price can reduce the loan amount and taxes based on assessed value, while a credit can cover closing costs or buy down the rate. Every loan program has limits on seller contributions, and credits must fit the appraisal and underwriting.

What is the difference between a temporary buydown and permanent discount points?

A temporary buydown lowers the payment for an initial period, often one to three years, and then the payment rises to the note rate. Discount points lower the rate for the life of the loan. Ask your lender to show the break-even period and the full payment after any temporary reduction ends.

Will the Fed decision today lower mortgage rates?

No one can promise that. The Federal Reserve's announcement is scheduled for 2:00 p.m. Eastern today, after this edition was published. Mortgage rates follow the bond market and can move before and after the announcement in either direction.

Can I count on refinancing later if rates drop?

No. A future refinance is never guaranteed: it depends on rates, your credit, income, home value and costs at that time. Buy a home whose payment works today.

Next Steps

Want two concession scenarios priced side by side? Build a plan at gotmortgages.com/plan, explore more Market Intel, or call 973-536-0276. Visit GotMortgages.com.

Sources

Original Got Mortgages market commentary. Data as of 8:00 a.m. ET, October 28, 2026; conditions may change after publication. MBS Highway subscriber content was not accessed or used.

Author: Abdel Khawatmi with PRMG Got Mortgages | 973-536-0276

Mortgage disclosure: For informational purposes only. This is not a commitment to lend, a rate quote, a guarantee of rate availability or individual financial, tax or legal advice. Rates, loan products, seller contributions, closing costs and underwriting criteria are subject to change and eligibility; every transaction requires individual review. All loans are subject to credit approval, underwriting, program and investor guidelines, and property eligibility. Consult appropriate advisers. Equal Housing Lender. PRMG Got Mortgages, Branch 643.